My colleague Brian Ascher in our Palo Alto office coined a term several months back called the “right-time web”. The concept, as he described it, was that with the massive increase in sharing of information through social and real-time media came the need for filters to help categorize that data and make it available on demand. It’s not that useful for me to know that a friend of mine just enjoyed an Americano Misto at Joe The Art of Coffee near Grand Central. But, when I am looking for great coffee places in mid-town, it’s really useful for me to know that. Similarly, when I am in the market for a digital camera, I would love to know who in my social and information networks has recently researched them and bought one. Their opinion is highly coveted by me at that time. What is really needed is a service to collect, organize, and make available all the data shared by my networks. Some think of this as social search. Brian called it the right-time web. And I think he is spot-on.
At the Twitter Chirp conference this week, I mentioned the need for it. Kara Swisher kindly wrote about it today and credited me with the concept, but it was really Brian’s concept and our team at Venrock has been riffing on it for some time. In any case, we have examined a bunch of companies in this space and would love to meet any others who are attacking the problem. Here is how Brian eloquently describes it:
Much has been written about the Real Time Web, and the hype grows louder every day. There is no denying the power of Twitter and Facebook and the other real time social media sources to reshape the way we create and consume information, however “real time” is not for everyone. Early adopters of these services relish in the ambient cloud of streaming information and the interpersonal “closeness” that comes from knowing the minute by minute moves of the people you are interested in. Most of us however, don’t care what you just ate for lunch right now, but two months from now when I am in San Francisco looking for a lunch spot, I’d be very interested to know that you enjoyed and Tweeted about the charming café in Noe Valley from two months ago. Likewise, hitting me with the triumphant news of your purchase of a new Prius is only modestly interesting to me while I am checking my phone while in line at the airport, but extremely interesting to me when I am proactively researching my own car purchase. So, the point is that social media content is valuable because it comes from people you care about, but it is gold when it marries with your intent and interest in a topic at a time of your choosing. In short, combining the “intent” of Search with the impact of a social filtered endorsement is opportunity of Google-sized proportions. Just as marketers have found search to be an amazingly effective vehicle against which to drive performance advertising, if there were a search engine that provide socially filtered search results pulling from the corpus of social media content, that is the holy grail.
In our mind, it is a hairy problem perfectly made for data geeks. The real-time web is highly unstructured. We share links, photos, tweets, status updates, buying decisions, thumbs up movie and song recommendations, restaurant reviews, and the like. Most of this is broadcasted to the world and not well compiled. Facebook’s past stream is not really searchable and Twitter search lacks the filtering mechanisms of, say, Google Shopping. It also doesn’t allow me to filter by my social/info graph/friends.
So, for all of you data science folks who like the challenge of finding signal in noise, creating structure where none exists, and designing feedback mechanisms to see how users respond, we salute you and would love to help you solve this problem.
Thoughts? As always, thanks for listening and I’d love your input.
well, you know I agree with you. An important next wave of the Web will be about intelligence and filtering across context, purpose and timing. One thing I am interested to watch (and personally experiment with) is the effectiveness of push vs pull in all this.
Thanks, Giff. I agree. This is one of the next major frontiers for the web ecosystem. Once structure is accomplished, things like push/pull become fun UX challenges.
do you think existing review sites – engadget, Yelp – are best positioned to do this, curate most recent reviews? if these services use Facebook Connect then it could filter against your social graph simply.
I think existing review sites work well PROVIDED the user decides to go there to place their review. The challenge is that we are increasingly using twitter, tumblr, foursquare and facebook as the places where we share bits about our life. Someone else has to do the work to aggregate, organize and then deliver to us (through search and other means) this info, when we need it most. The review guys could certainly head in this direction…
Context is an important element of the equation. (Right-time, right-place web?) A hub is nice when I consciously want to go looking for socially-based info. But what I really want is to have this information delivered to me in response to my expressions of intent wherever I happen to be when I express that intent. Serendipity is huge. (To dive deeper, I’d spec some other requirements, like rationing interruptions to those instances where the info is most likely to be relevant based on inference of intent, social match strength, directness of knowledge match…)
Completely agree, George. Thanks for your comments.
Great idea for sure. It is all about contextuality (if that is even a word) You need the real time web to enable the right time web. Because when is the right time? Could be 5 minutes after your friend grabbed his coffee – could be 5 months. Realistically, you need not only the right time web, you need the right place web – so you have to put the need at the time in context with where you are – if the need demands. If I’m on 5th and 44th in NYC (I think that is where you are) and you search for a coffee recommendation – getting a right time return is only useful if it is put in context of your location. However, if you want to buy a camera – then perhaps the right place is not B&H Photo (9th and 34th) but it may be Amazon or someone else out there.
Yep! Right time, right place. Love it.
[...] Pakman is a partner at VC firm Venrock in New York. This post was originally published on his personal blog and is re-published here with [...]
I spend most of my time arguing AGAINST the value (especially to the investors) of digital social media. This concept, however, definitely hints towards the fallacy that causes that lack of value (yes, I am saying that Twitter is worthless). It also stinks of a solution.
Unfortunately, I think I may disappoint you when I say that I believe the solution isn’t digital, or data-based. You and your colleague’s assertions are absolutely spot on – information has different value to people depending on the timing of that information. The other factor involved here is that the information has different value depending on who it is coming from, and what our relationship is to that person.
So, the most valuable information comes from someone I’m close to, and at the exact time I need it; the problem, or, non-problem is that happens already with Social Media. Notice I said, “digital” social Media earlier, and this time I left out the digital? That was on purpose. The type of information you’re looking for has been around since long before the Internet, and it’s still there.
Look at it like this:
There is a continuum with complete stranger on one end, and, say, your mom on the other. The top 10% of the spectrum, by your mom, are people that you really care what they think about Camera X, Doctor Y or Movie Z. After that, the value of the information, to you, degrades quickly to stranger.
The fact is that the Internet, and digital social media, is made for strangers and quasi-strangers. That other 90%. Timing isn’t an issue with that top 10% because, well, they are the top 10%. Since they are so close, I know all about them and their lives. I know which friend is really into bikes. I know which one just bought a Prius. I just call them and ask them at that right time.
So, by definition and purpose: the people whose opinions you truly value above that of strangers, you don’t need the Internet to help you communicate with.
As far as strangers and quasi-stranger’s reviews and opinions are concerned… the Internet has that well covered already.
I released a new Twitter search app yesterday. Tweetprobe filters & archives all tweets for later retrieval.
I was there at Chirp when you made that statement, and it really stuck in my mind. I do think we “data geeks” *could* build such a thing, and I think the pieces are there. I’m going to invoke one of Arthur C. Clarke’s laws: “When a distinguished elderly scientist says something is possible, he is usually proven right.”
I have to agree with Al, though, about the continuum between six million complete strangers voting 73% in favor of a digital camera and your mom saying the freaking thing is too hard to use.
Getting back to the “data science”, though, the algorithms exist as far as I can tell, but today’s “two-guys-in-a-loft-Y-combinator-agile-get-ramen-profitable-with-a-minimum-viable-product-startup-weekend” approach just plain *isn’t* going to yield “the right-time web”.
You need a well-structured, *organized*, *disciplined* software engineering methodology – something along the lines of CMM level 1 or even better. And you need a *significant* investment in hardware. I don’t know if you spent much time with the Twitter engineers on Hack Day, but I did. There’s some serious muscle in their data centers.
Speaking of Twitter and muscle, I spent a fair amount of time listening to some of the key Twitter engineers at Chirp and they are some really sharp folks! It reminds me a lot of Floating Point Systems in the early-mid 1980s, before the mini-supercomputer market died. So I wouldn’t look to a “startup” to build “the right-time web” – I think if anyone’s going to build it, it will be Twitter, Facebook, Amazon or Microsoft.
I blogged about my partly-baked thoughts on search a while back (http://borasky-research.net/2010/03/19/seeker-or-seller-what-do-you-think-about-adding-popularity-to-twitter-search-tweetsearchpop/). I’m in the process of writing up multiple blog posts on Chirp, and this is one of the “elephants in the room” I plan to cover. So, as they say, “Watch this space”.
Hi Ed,
Thank you kindly for your informative remarks. We certainly agree this is a hard problem unlikely to be fully addressed by two guys and a LAMP stack. I enjoyed your posts on search and I’d love to “watch this space”. Please keep me posted on your progress. Happy to talk directly when you are ready: dp at venrock dot com.
I disagree. I don’t think the critical factor is in either the software methodology or in the hardware investment. I think its in the use case. Social media has shifted the way people are used to exchanging information, but the hardware and software requirements to accomplish the core messaging features are not super huge. So I think a small start-up can crack this and I plan to prove it.
Great, I look forward to trying the product! Keep us posted!
“So I wouldn’t look to a “startup” to build “the right-time web” – I think if anyone’s going to build it, it will be Twitter, Facebook, Amazon or Microsoft.” …or IBM…they’ve got brilliant big data/predictive analysis minds like that of Jeff Jonas and IBM is “all-in” on the software data biz. They also have the hardware muscle and structured engineering methodology as core to their DNA.
[...] né des termes tendance sur Internet est celui de « the right-time web ». Je traduis celui-ci par l'Internet juste-à-temps en référence à la méthode de gestion de [...]
[...] Pakman is a partner at VC firm Venrock in New York. This post was originally published on his personal blog and is re-published here with [...]
Social media is worthless. Almost all of social media (the 50% in english) is absolute junk. When you actually use one of these monitoring systems and see how much heavy lifting is involved and all of the absolutely valueless unstructured data you get in the end, you will see that this is a pipe dream.
I don’t agree. For brands, there are countless tools already available offering trending assessments of the tenor of conversations happening on the social web (trendrr, radian6, etc.) Brands spends lots of money on surveys to yield the same type of data, and can now get it with much less heavy lifting. But more importantly, social media allows brands to engage in a conversation with customers as opposed to expect all conversation will be one-way and I think that is more likely to be the way consumers prefer to hear from brands going forward. It’s a fundamental change. I wrote more about it here.
Social media is kind of like a dinner conversation. If you invite the wrong guests – the amount of useless information could be as high as 100% – but if you get the right mix of people contributing – the parts add up to something far more than the sum of the whole. A great blog community can really coalesce around an idea – refining it and giving you a much better sense of things. Of course – given that almost all social media is 100% open – you do have to wade through a ton of junk to get to the gold – but in the end – you get the audience and conversation you deserve.
Hey there. As a NYC resident and a Foursquare user I couldn’t help but be struck by the fact that Foursquare really seems to get your concept of “right time web”. Sometimes the tips my friends leave are off, but more often than not they’re very useful, and combined with a Yelp! search leave me much better off with some solid recommendations to go on. The concept of a right time web is an interesting one. I’m sad that I couldn’t go to Chirp!
Katie
Community Manager | Radian6
@misskatiemo
[...] David Pakman seems to have initiated a discussion about the various merits of real-time versus right-time. [...]
[...] idea was first floated before entrepreneurs at Chirp, a conference for Twitter developers, by a colleague of Mr. [...]
There seems to be a lot of debate on this subject and as an online marketing agency owner and speaker, I hear it all the time. So, what’s so great about real-time web? It absolutely depends on the need, application and audience. Back in 2001 I owned a social network(back then called an online community) for action sports enthusiasts. The users were interested in what was going on in the sport, in their city or by their favorite athlete. Content (good, curated, insightful) and strong branding has always been the key to success online. So real-time web, as you call it, is and must be the wave of the future. With the millions (probably trillions soon) of blogs and countless social networks, it is impossible to easily manage all of this content. Systems and technology must support management.
Jasmine Sandler
CEO
http://www.agent-cy.com