Very few digital media upstarts have been able to build scale businesses in online entertainment. No startup has succeeded at scale in digital music (with only Apple and, barely, Amazon registering any level of success — these are hardly startups). In online video, clearly YouTube reached scale (but had no meaningful business) when it was acquired by Google and now, with Google’s help, will clearly reach scale as a business. In online movies/TV, of the “Five Guys” who seem poised to be meaningful (Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Netflix), only one is a startup, and it sure is an outlier. And an amazing outlier they are.
In examining how Netflix successfully navigated the perils of licensed entertainment content businesses, important and familiar lessons emerge.
The movie studios wanted Netflix dead. They hated the model from the beginning. Only problem was, they couldn’t kill them. Thanks to the first sale doctrine, codified in copyright law, a lawfully purchased DVD could be rented. So, when many of the studios didn’t want to play ball with Netflix and offer them discounts (or even wholesale pricing) on DVDs, Netflix just went to the store to buy them at retail. This allowed Netflix to get off the ground and assess market demand for their DVD-by-mail rental business without any approval or licenses from rights holders. CEO Reed Hastings’ gut proved right — a more consumer-friendly model of no late fees and big selection overpowered the immediate convenience of going to a corner store to pick up a movie for a night. He offered a better service for consumers against the strong will of the rights holders. And by building a great product, he was rewarded with massive consumer adoption. There are more than 15MM subscribers today, and growing.
Many analysts predicted the death of Netflix as the world shifted from DVD viewing to on-demand streaming. It wasn’t that people believed Netflix couldn’t develop a compelling streaming service. Many of us thought Netflix would whither because the studios/networks would never license them content on reasonable terms. There is no first sale doctrine in digital goods, so Netflix could not get into the streaming business without negotiating painful voluntary licenses with each rights holder. The studios had begun licensing services like Amazon’s Unbox, Apple and Microsoft with limited titles loaded with consumer unfriendly restrictions and pricing (movies can be rented for $3.99 or $4.99, must be watched within 30 days, and once started, will expire and become unwatchable after 24 hours!) Reed Hastings, with 15MM subscribers and growing knew those terms were largely a non-starter with the mass market. He had built a huge business based on customer convenience — pay once a month, watch as many movies as you can, and NO restrictions! Keep a movie as long as you want!
So, it seems Netflix could either stay out of the streaming business or license limited content like everyone else with lots of restrictions. And this is where Netflix beat the odds. They knew the two main weaknesses of studios and networks: (1) big money talks — they are motivated by short-term profit and (2) the profit participants (directors, actors, writers, showrunners) will exert pressure when big offers are put in front of studios/networks.
As Netflix grew in size, an interesting thing happened — they were massive patrons of the postal service by spending a few billion dollars a year on postage. They reasoned they could simply shift that expense to content owners and have as good or better a business. When they waived a $1B check in front of the studios eyes, suddenly all those restrictions on pricing and limited viewing went away. Netflix used some great negotiating savvy to offer really big numbers to studios in total, but also big per-episode and per-movie-title guarantees. This allowed the profit participants to put pressure on the studios/networks to take the deal. Because Netflix can influence the shows we watch, they can afford to overpay on a per episode basis for hit shows to help with customer acquisition, but can steer us to lower-cost programming once we become members.
In short, Netflix developed great economic leverage with the rights owners — and that is the only way to force them to do deals that allow both customers to be delighted and also leave enough margin for startups to build a business. Without the first sale doctrine, however, Netflix never would have gotten there. And once they got leverage, they played their cards perfectly.
[...] they’re not” debate: A concise explanation of the Netflix digital success story, via Venrock’s David Pakman. Key insight: A really big check solves a lot of problems. Unstated corollary: Netflix can write a [...]
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David,
Insightful analysis. I think Reed has a fantastic long-term view of his business. I especially liked his SWAT thinking in this presentation he shared a couple of months ago: http://www.slideshare.net/reed2001/netflix-opportunity
- Dev
Yes, and a great recruiting tool.
David,
Great article. Minor nit, near the end of the fourth paragraph, you appear to have confused the founders of LinkedIn and Netflix. I suspect you’ve been hoist upon your spell-checker’s pitard.
Cheers,
Rob
Fixed, thank you!
David & Dev:
Netflix is definitely an excellent case study for content monetization that seems to work against all the odds as mentioned. Another start-up company although not public (yet)and therefore not as transparent is Pandora with a somewhat different business model mix (subscription vs. advertising) and similar challenges (royalties, going global, 4 screens). Question is: Will Pandora be as successful? Pandora already penetrated 4 screens (Phone, PC, connectedTV, car). I’m occupied with the latter screen right now, figuring out content monetization business models for the automotive screen to determine what could work in 2013. The Interesting portion here is the control of the “Car OEM” and how he can participate in the revenue distribution or just be an enabler without financial gain. Interesting lessons to be gained from other app stores and success stories like Netflix and others.
Ralf
Yes, I really should include Pandora in this. They certainly are successful and will continue to be. They benefit from statutory licenses.
uhhhh…you say Netflix spends “a few billion dollars a year on postage.” For 16.9 million subscribers? Check your math. For every billion spent on postage a year, that would be $59 per subscriber. I think you’re a little off.
Sorry, I used “postage” as a proxy for all the costs of physical distribution of DVDs…inventory, warehouses, labor to stuff envelopes, mailers, postage, etc. I think that is well over $1B.
Netflix has said publicly its postage costs are about $600 million a year. That hasn’t changed much over the last few years, and the cost of physical distribution continues to stabilize as Netflix spends less on DVDs by striking windowing deals with the studios.
Hi Ryan, thanks for your comments. I should have been more clear, but was using the term “postage” as a proxy for all the costs of physical distribution of DVDs…inventory, warehouses, labor to stuff envelopes, mailers, postage, etc. I think that is well over $1B.
Great post, David. Very interesting story.
Interesting. So making it in the entertainment business is like playing cards? How about a good business plan, excellent ROI projections or a strong team?
Just kidding. Even though I shouldn’t.
Thank god, there is another explanation why Netflix has succeeded, available here: http://www.allbusiness.com/operations/3878629-1.html
Hi Greg. Thanks for your comments. There truly are many reasons why Netflix is a great company, chief among them their customer-centric philosophy. But had they not successfully navigated the rights issues in offering movie and TV content they do not own themselves, they never would have had a chance to offer such a great service to customers. I chose to focus on the rights issues in this post.
[...] Why Netflix Won – Pakman’s Blog: Disruption [...]
I understand why you focus on the rights issues — they have to be made simpler to benefit both the startups and the content owners. I support you in that. However, the “sale doctrine” your mention was and is available to anyone who wants to take advantage of it, and yet many other companies trying to find a niche in DVD rental market have failed. Obviously, it was not the licensing stick that broke them.
Same seems to be true with other copyright-protected content, music, books, etc. Sure, there are prohibitive laws and high entry barriers in those fields, but are they really the main obstacle for startups?
I am afraid that by focusing on the rights issues, you might obscure factors that are more fundamental, at least from the entrepreneur’s point of view; for example, the role of investors, mainly VCs in helping startups like Netflix once was get through the maze of crippling laws and pay for the high entry fees.
Redpoint claims they helped Netflix in the early stages. According to Reed Hastings, however, the company launched its billion dollar business plan with only $2 million as their seed money. Maybe from Redpoint, I do not know. But the question is why only two millions? Why only Redpoint? Why so many VCs said “no” to Netflix then.
I do not want to step on anybody’s toe here, but didn’t those who rejected Netflix proved to be as vision-less as the very studios and networks they criticized? Aren’t today’s VC all too conservative (not to say totally negative) when it comes to supporting innovative content startup? If it is true that “big money talks,” then perhaps instead of waiting till content owners tear down their walls, the VCs should be busy raising the big money? Maybe the times when a $100,000 seed could grow into a billion dollar cashcow are over.
David,
Nice post. I agree partly but I think you’re missing an important factor.
Netflix generated a lot of demand for movies that weren’t selling so well. When the DVD business dominated, the discs that sold were the discs at Wal-Mart and Blockbuster. Netflix helped studios monetize older films, fringe films and – let’s not forget – television by the season (which I’m told never did as well at Blockbuster). Unlike Redbox, Netflix isn’t concentrating so much on the hits that make up most of DVD revenue.
Great points, Rob. But a main reason Netflix had to get good at that on the digital side is that they (until recently) were not able to get access to the hits. I think they will continue to be a dominant mid-tail effort, but now that they are securing rights to all the content (net of windows, of course), I think they will do fine at providing streaming access to head content too.
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed [...]
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed [...]
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed Hastings. Techies [...]
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed [...]
[...] 彼の言うNetflixとはあのNetflix、ブロードバンドによるインターネットのピークトラフィックの20%を占めるまでになったNetflixのことだろう。同社はBlockbusterの倒産を後押しし、DVDの売上を停滞させた。ハリウッドが同社との契約を拒否したときには肩をすくめ、DVDを自前で大量に買い込んだ。そして今でも、負けてはいない。Netflixを率いるReed Hastingsを、Fortune誌は2010年の最優秀経営者に選んだ。 [...]
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed [...]
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed Hastings. Techies [...]
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed Hastings. Techies [...]
[...] and Apple come to mind…) Now we are seeing it happen in the movie/TV industry. As I have discussed before, Netflix deftly navigated the treacherous pitfalls of digital video content licensing, building [...]
[...] the company that shrugged when Hollywood refused to cut them deals, bought DVDs wholesale and still won. Netflix the company led by Fortune’s top businessperson of the year Reed [...]